Housing Curve

Guest Post
 

Back on April 5th, a BLOG on economist.com picked up a story
on housing by an anonymous writer who only goes by the intials R.A.
The article entitled  “The rebound is now” seems to rely heavily on
data from Trulia, a mix of  odd and unnamed sources of data and
observations that are at best vague and thoroughly misleading.

The author then goes on to attempt to discredit the Case/Shiller
Index with deflecting information and a sales pitch from none other than…you guessed it, Trulia. Their supposed head economists, Jed kolko figures he has a new way of analyzing housing data that no one else has come up with! The Case/Shiller Index has been one of the most reliable price indicators since its inception.

Now for those who don’t know and the uninitiated, Trulia is one of the
most unreliable and unprofessional real estate analysis firms in the U.S. market. Outside of the NAR, Trulia and their ‘economists’ are about as
inept and myopic as those from the said NAR.

I will address the two data points that Trulia and R.A. sight as their so-called ‘claim’ to a housing rebound. by the way, (Housing is faltering again)

First is the “prices nationally are 19% below fair value” claim. Fair value
is typically an accounting term, that has little meaning in the valuation of
real estate assets. Market value is not fair value, though many confuse this term and notion. What is interesting is that while they throw this 19% below fair value number out there, they do not provide the formula or metric on how they came up with this outrageous claim.

The best (though basic) way to gauge market prices to affordability, is
to utilize the comparative of national median prices to national median incomes. Currently the national median income in the U.S. is approximately $51,000 +/-. While the national median home price is approximately $148,000 +/-.

Based on the approximate measure of an Income to Debt ratio, housing should be no more than 30% of DTI. So in reality, market prices are just
about where they should be, give or take a 1% to 2% range of prices.
The notion that prices are below so-called fair value are absurd.
Another key point to remember, is that prices and values that were
achieved during the credit bubble (housing bubble) were false.
Predicated upon a synthetically created credit bubble, as over-inflated home prices were based on the foolish premise of continually rising prices
through speculation- pure and simple. Not on the historic rise of cpi
(real- not Fed manipulated) and wage increases, which is the only true
valid measure of sustainable appreciation.

An additional metric is to use the house prices to rent ratio. The most
recent data for national median rent is about $850 per month. Currently,
the ratio is approximately 15.4. Which is right on the line with regards to buying or renting. It depends on many factors; salary, debt, down payment, loan amount, etc.

Just because prices are in the 150′s, doesn’t mean it is a good time to buy.
A ‘good time’ to buy is when a potential home owner can AFFORD the asset. Meaning, having the ability to carry the mortgage payment on a fixed rate loan, at no more than 30% of the buyers gross income.

There are also other methods of calculating prices to affordability and values
that are a bit more complex and over the grasp of many real estate agents.
Suffice to say, that the average agent has little to any concept of valuation methods and therefore, has no business pricing real estate. And suffice to
say that Trulia and the worthless NAR are some of the most ill-trained, unsophisticated agencies in the real estate market.

These are nothing more than Sales & Marketing and lobbying entities, who
are in the business of ‘selling’ to agents and the public. Nothing they publish
or claim with regard to prices, volume and trending data is reliable and/or credible. This fact has been proven over many years of false and misleading data from these said agencies.

The second misleading, deceptive and outright ignorant commentary from Kolko is that he states unemployment is lowering and consequently improving. This statement on its own, reveals how ignorant and uneducated Kolko is. U3 unemployment has RISEN to over 12%, while the U6 rate is in the range of 25% to 28%- Depression-Era levels. When you LACK the basic skills to comprehend labor force participation and utilization you expose yourself as plainly stupid in every sense of the word.

The BLS is engaged in a full out propaganda campaign. Using the antiquated and flawed methodology of  X-12 ARIMA, where the unemployment rate drops on not only the addition of employment, BUT also on the increase in Labor Force drop-outs. So, as MILLIONS are no longer counted but STILL unemployed, the rate drops! It’s like magic! For those wide-eyed dopes who only see shiny objects, call me, and I’ll school you on the basics of arithmetic.

It’s as if the majority of the under-educated agents and brokers haven’t learned anything over the past 5 or so years. The cheerleading and arm-waving from the government, the useless real estate industry and the msm have fallen flat of their faces. The made up headlines of a “housing recovery”
go back to January 2010, propaganda put out by the NAR and published by the Washington com-Post.

Shills like Mortgage News Daily in July of 2011, then the ever neo-con supporting Bloomberg in October of 2011. Then we have the Economist.com in November of 2011 CLAIMING that a housing recovery was beginning.

Called Rising from the Ruins. Do you see a pattern? Well maybe you don’t. After all, most agents took a 75 hour class that a monkey could sit through and are ‘in’ the real estate business…running around, claiming they understand economics, statistics and real estate when in reality they are as clueless as a newborn. Here’s a tip; (no charge by the way) real estate, is NOT about staging, flashy virtual tours or ‘post cards’ mailed to faceless ‘residents’. But unfortunately, this is the credo and climate for most of the industry.

Trulia, Kolko and ‘R.A.’ are just more of the useless drones in the contingent
of  Hopium sniffing sales whores and clowns, who will go to any lengths to lie and deceive the consuming public as well as most of the morons within the real estate industry itself. Falsities will ALWAYS, bring a Falling Away…Remember that.

Cause and Effect of Massive Debt

Guest Post


CAUSE, EFFECT & THE FALLACY OF A RETURN TO NORMALCY is
The Burning Platform’s post for March 6th, 2012


I hear the term de-leveraging relentlessly from the mainstream media.
The storyline that the American consumer has been denying themselves
and paying down debt is completely 100% false. The proliferation of this
Big Lie has been spread by Wall Street and their mouthpieces in the corporate media. 

The purpose is to convince the ignorant masses they have deprived themselves long enough and deserve to start spending again. The propaganda being spouted by those who depend on Americans to go
further into debt is relentless.

The “fantastic” automaker recovery is being driven by 0% financing for seven years peddled to subprime (aka deadbeats) borrowers for mammoth SUVs and pickup trucks that get 15 mpg as gas prices surge past $4.00 a gallon. What could possibly go wrong in that scenario?

 

 

Thanks to the Burning Platform

Unemployment Jumps Back Up in mid-February

U3 rate jumps back up to 9%

Gallups latest report suggests the BLS will “likely report on the first Friday of March that its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will increase in February.”

“Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, has also climbed up to 19.0%.”

Unemployment Worsening

False Idols (In government the blind so trust…)

For the idolisation-ists, questioning the government and its agencies
amongst their circle, is considered “offensive.”  Unthinkable even.

So what happens when you cross fervent, pathological behavior with
the science of truth and fact? You get the following:

  • Denial
  • Deception
  • Deflection

Over the past 3 years, the analysis and reporting from the BLS has
been under suspicion and scrutiny by many outside the circle of
Wall Street, Investment Banks, government economists, government shills and typically, the progressive left. Though even more-so within the past year.

The BLS has a long history of revising their data over and over again.
In fact, in the last year often making double revisions on one data-set.
While some claim that the BLS is “independent” of  its administrations
(be it Republican or Democrat) what has come to light proves otherwise.

A clear, concise example of this built-in bias, is the very disturbing
and alarming 20-Month revision in the BLS’s Non-Farm Payroll Data
from May 2009 to February 2011.
20-Month Revisions to NFP

From May ’09 to February ’11, the BLS has revised NFP DOWNWARD by approximately 550,000. A massive revision in the original data by a supposedly “independent” and very trustworthy agency- so say the
Blind Believers, of their False Idols. 20 Months of inaccurate, deceptive
data touted, praised and published all in hopes of?

I think it is very clear of what the ‘hopes’ were. Ultimately, that ruse
failed and the American public is finally becoming more and more aware
of the deceptive and politically-motivated practices of the government
in general.

Worship not…their False Idols

false idol

Home Repairs and Maintenance

Seasonal Maintenance & Repairs

Spring has finally sprung so it’s time to give your property a bit of TLC by  performing some Preventative Maintenance. (PM for short)

For in-depth articles on PM, both inside and out, click on the Prevenative Maintenance link for articles on property maintenance and care. Also, you can watch a short 3 minuite video below.

FANNIE & FREDDIE SOUGHT $95 BILLION DOLLARS FROM U.S. TAX PAYERS IN 2009 ALONE

The U.S. housing market continues to slide in one of the darkest abysses in the nations history. New home sales have plummeted, existing home sales posted a record low in January as well. Home prices are dropping like a rock from the sky and foreclosures are running wild. While shadow inventory is set to flood the market this year, producing a bigger glut of unsold homes, which will drive sale price and volume even lower.

Now Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage provider in the U.S. has reported enormous losses topping $74 Billion Dollars for 2009.  Earlier in the week, Freddie Mac posted a $21.6 billion loss for 2009. Combined, that is a MASSIVE $95 BILLION DOLLARS lost from both government sponsored institutions. $95 Billion in tax payer  monies WASTED and SQUANDERED by corrupt, thieving politicians and suits running these two fraudulent entities.

Fannie Mae spokesperson said they will seek an ADDITIONAL $15.3 Billion in additional funds from the U.S. government this year. The firm has already received $59.9 billion in aid from the so-called stimulus. When you total the amount of tax payer money GIVEN to both publicly funded institutions, it is a STAGGERING $170 BILLION DOLLARS. That’s $170 Billion STOLEN from the American tax payers by Fannie and Freddie alone. How about the Billions more given to all the BANKS who have also stolen tax payer money- via TARP and stimulus? The auto makers? And other many various companies and entities as well.

How many BILLIONS upon BILLIONS are we, the American Tax Payers in debited for? How much more are we going stand for? How much longer before the public stops voting for these same CRIMINALS in BOTH parties- who KEEP stealing OUR money and LYING to us. Where is the conservative movement, at a time when America truly needs it?

The corruption and financial problems with Freddie and Fannie are just the tip of the iceberg. Isn’t it interesting that NO ONE in the socialist mainstream media has done any type of investigative reporting on the suicide of Freddie chief financial officer David B. Kellermann, in April of 2009. Why is that? The cover up behind the real story must be mind blowing. The layers and layers of corruption that are waiting to be uncovered must be staggering. But, has anyone in the obama run media bothered to vet out the real story? No. Instead, the State-run media falls inline and follows orders, the new order from comrade change and his socialist minions.

Barney Frank, Chris Dodd and host of other criminal executives and politicians are so deeply embedded in corruption with these two institutions and yet no one seems to care. When will be the time to care? Will it be after the left-leaning U.S. government installs State-Run Health Care? Will it be when the jobless rate reaches 20%? Again, where is the conservative movement at a time when America truly needs it.

What happened to the American values of hard work and self-sustainability? What happened to the America from the 1940′s through the 1950′s? A time when our country was at its BEST, with a strong, proud work ethic, solid family values and the staunch will to further democracy? It seems to be gone for now, taken away by the dangerous progressive liberal socialists, the minority groups of the very, very wealthy, the very poor, the corrupt unions, and all of the special interest groups who DO NOT represent the majority of America. -Taken by the brain-washed who believe that a platform of European styled Socialism is the right path for our Nation. Tragically, they are hugely and deadly mistaken.

The Albatross – forever (and still) aloft…

National News

U.S. unemployment easing…

Gotcha. Well that’s a line that many Americans wish they could believe in. It is certainly something that the White House (of lies) wants to be able to lay claim to- considering how much they professed that “the unemployment situation is not as bad as the media had everyone thinking”

Well folks, the reality is that unemployment is still WORSENING. Today’s initial jobless claims reveal that first time unemployment filings are up AGAIN- to a whopping 482,000. Some leading economists were quoted as “surprised” Surprised? Really?

For such book-smart individuals, some of these so-called leading experts are common-sense stupid, plain and simple. There is NO job creation or restoration, there is NO improvement as of yet.

Retail sales are way down, foreclosures are way up and 35 million+ out of a job workers are suffering. Surprised? Yes, we are surprised by the continuation of insulting comments from such highly paid people.

The U-6 rate now stands at nearly 18%. That’s EIGHTEEN PERCENT and yes, you heard correctly- 18% of the workforce unemployed.

The puppets over at the Labor Department are stating that latest rise is due to the supposed backlog of paperwork over the Christmas holiday. But don’t be fooled by the on-going rhetoric and lies that is coming from the DC puppet masters on the left.

The fact is that the WH and the labor department underestimated the number of would-be workers filing for continued claims from the previous two weeks. The amount of claims are now catching up with the true number of jobless claimants- which continue to rise.

Regional News

For awhile, New Jerseys residential foreclosure ranking hovered around 21st in the nation, but todays latest data will certainly place the Garden State much higher. Foreclosures have jumped an enormous 29% from 2008 to 2009. 62,775 homes in NJ were foreclosed in 2009, according to RealtyTrac.

Couple that with the ‘shadow inventory’ of pending residential foreclosures, the tide of commercial foreclosures and 33 year record-high unemployment in New Jersey and it all adds up to a disaster. Commercial foreclosures alone rose by a stunning 68%!

As more and more retailers falter, offices close their doors as layoffs continue, that number is only going to increase. Unfortunately, there is no good news on the horizon either. Pending personal debt, consumer credit, wages, production, cpi, food and fuel prices, sales and inventories will all yield negative data in the coming months and Q1 reports.

It’s just common sense. No jobs, means no income. No income means loss of assets.  RE has stated over and over and over again; Jobs are the core of the economy- nothing else. 70% of the U.S. economy is, or was consumption. No longer folks. Unsustainable without…hold it, wait for it…ding, ding, ding, ding, ding! Final answer, Jobs.

Inflation Up, Sales Down, Jobless Claims Up…yet again.

Round and round we go…when the pain stops…nobody knows…

Twenty five months into the worst recession since the Great Depression- still no relief on the horizon.

In case you were confused by the pompous distortion coming from Washington (especially the left) RE will clarify the FACTS for you. The Department of Labor stated that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% last month, after increasing 0.4% in November. This mainly due to a RISE in food and energy costs. Great, gasoline prices are double of what they were a year ago and now food prices are climbing. Just what the American public needs right now.

Well, maybe we can offset the inflation with that raise we are all expecting, right? Oh no, that’s right. Wages have DECREASED, as real hourly earnings fell in December.

Some more sobering news,  retail sales in December fell 0.3% and excluding autos, sales decreased 0.2 percent. This was the biggest yearly sales drop on record. How about auto sales? Oh yes, they are falling just as predicted- once the CARS program ended.

Now to the employment scene, or lack thereof. Jobless claims INCREASED by 11,000 last week. Gee, only 440,750 persons applied for initial jobless benefits. What? What? What? How is that possible (asks a dumbfounded pelosi, reid, obama and the rest of the peanut gallery on the left)

Oh but wait. The rhetoric claims that even though unemployment CONTINUES, it’s slowing. Oh, I  s e e. Wow, that must be great news for the nearly 35 million total unemployed (U-6) workers in the U.S. Whew, what a relief.

Well how about housing? There must be some good news in the housing sector, no? No. Foreclosures for 2009 hit an all-time  record high with 2.8 million properties seized. For 2010, most predictions are even worse as a new crop of homeowners will fall into delinquency- because of a LACK of JOBS. Simply put, the unemployed are not going to be able to avoid impending foreclosure.

So while the left attempts to distract the public with health care and such, making outrageously false claims about adding two million jobs, etc. America keeps declining. Slowly but steadily, further declining. Folks, there is no good news at all, economically and/or socially. Things are very bleak for the majority of the country, without an immediate end in sight.

Initial Jobless Claims (unexpectedly?) RISE in U.S. – soar to 474,000

Stop the presses! Hold the line! Brace for impact!

Shocking news out of the nations capitol this morning….the Commerce department, the DOL, BLS and the puppets in D.C. are stymied. It seems that for the first week of December- Intial jobless claims actually…(wait for it, wait for it…) ROSE!

Crazy to think, but actually true! Claims increased by 17,000 – to a total of 474,000.

I know. We are as puzzled as anyone. I mean the anointed one, only a day ago, hailed that the economy was improving and jobs would be restored! Well, if comrade obama say’s so…it MUST be true, right?

This latest increase in claims is yet another clear sign that most companies- as reported are not moving temporary workers into permanent jobs, nor are they ending layoffs. Expect even higher numbers in January, as companies continue to trim their workforce and the economy slips further south.

And in another shocking turn, the stock market (insert laughing expression) reacted negatively to the news. Wow, who would have guessed that!? What is going to happen when the commercial real estate sector plummets into obscurity? Or when the foreclosure rate sky rockets in 2010? Ahh, perhaps the street will find some positive news in phony stock buy-backs or a 0.001 percent increase of some company’s profit margin…

Speaking of phony. As our nation is on the brink of financial disaster, when we need our elected officials to find a solution to repair and restore the labor market, they fiddle. Focusing on the largest fraud in the history of the world- so-called man-made global warming. They deflect and play dinner theater trying to destroy health care. They even have time to worry about the BCS. Good to know that Washington is looking out for the 35 MILLION total (u-6) unemployed citizens of our country, eh.

das vidanya

A Falseness will always bring a falling away…

The latest housing data shows that U.S. home sales have risen about 21% from October 2008, while the median price has fallen another 7%- to about $173,000. While the news may appear to be good, don’t be fooled by the mirage in the desert.

The rhetoric of a “housing recovery” or “the worst is over”  that is coming from a contingent of agents/brokers, bankers, politicians and economists are simply lies. Their principles are false and their arguing deceptive, there is no recovery of the housing market- yet.

But there are a few bright, logical analysts who understand the market, market  analyzation and business cycles. Those who can parse out artificial statistics and know how to apply the proper metrics and valuation techniques in order to provide true data. Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight stated, “The only reason we’re seeing good numbers is because of government policies, along with record low home prices- that are propping the market up,” “Housing is still fundamentally weak.”

Still fundamentally weak. Of course sales are going to increase, give a buyer $8,000 (in cash) coupled with extremely low prices and there will be activity. News flash- Once the government welfare runs dry and more jobs are lost, sales will die. Loans will falter. Foreclosures will rise. Recovery? Not in your wildest, do-nothing, easy money-making, real estate agent dreams.

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